Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment

edX
Training overview
Professional Course
Self-paced Online
6 weeks
From 199 USD

Start dates
Online
199 USD
Start anytime

Course description

Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment

In an increasingly data-driven world, data and its use aren't always all it's cracked up to be. This course aims to explain how expert opinion can help in many areas where complex decisions need to be made.

For instance, how can you predict volcano activity when no eruptions have been recorded over a long period of time? Or how can you predict how many people will be resistant to antibiotics in a country where there is no available data at national level? Or how about estimating the time needed to evacuate people in flood risk areas?

In situations like these, expert opinions are needed to address complex decision-making problems. This course will show you the basics of various techniques that use expert opinion for uncertainty quantification. These techniques vary from the informal and undocumented opinion of one expert to a fully documented and formal elicitation of a panel of experts, such as the Classical Model (CM) or Cooke's method, which is arguably the most rigorous method for performing Structured Expert Judgment.

CM, developed at TU Delft by Roger Cooke, has been successfully applied for over 30 years in areas as diverse as climate change, disaster management, epidemiology, public and global health, ecology, aeronautics/aerospace, nuclear safety, environment and ecology, engineering and many others.

Who should attend?

Prerequisites

Basic concepts in Probability Theory and Statistics. Links to videos introducing the concepts will be provided.

Training content

  • Why and when to use SEJ?
  • Statistical accuracy (calibration) and information score
  • Performance-based weights and the Decision Maker
  • Data analysis
  • Applications of CM
  • Practical matters (biases, experts, elicitation)

Course delivery details

This course is offered through Delft University of Technology, a partner institute of EdX.

4–6 hours per week

Costs

  • Verified Track -$199
  • Audit Track - Free

Certification / Credits

What you'll learn

By the end of the course all learners will be able to:

  • Recognize when and in which settings the Classical Model (CM) can be used for performing Structured Expert Judgment
  • Understand when to account for uncertainty assessments in complex decision-making context when data pose issues
  • Know how CM can be used to analyze expert data and obtain answers to questions of interest
  • Explore an optional IDEA Protocol module, which uses a different method of performing Structured Expert Judgment.

Verified learners will have the added benefit of being able to:

  • Get an in-depth perspective on the CM method theory
  • Access optional modules about dependence elicitation and eliciting probabilities.

About edX

Solutions for Your Biggest Business Challenges:

edX For Business helps leading companies upskill their labor forces by making the world’s greatest educational resources available to learners across a wide variety of in-demand fields. edX For Business delivers high-quality corporate eLearning to train and engage your employees...


Read more and show all training delivered by this supplier

Contact this provider

Fill out your details to find out more about Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment.

  Contact the provider

  Get more information

  Register your interest

Country *

Contact info

edX

141 Portland Street
02139 Cambridge Massachusetts

 Show phone number
edx.business

Contact provider

Have a question about this course? Fill out this form and the provider will get in touch with you shortly

Training reviews

No reviews available

Need help with your search?

findcourses.com offers a free consultancy service to help compare training for you and your team

Request a free quote

Request a free training quote